AI breakthroughs in robotics won’t change your life any time soon

This would be Tesla’s Optimus, an AI-powered humanoid robot that Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, believes will be “not just Tesla’s biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever,” headed to work on factory floors and, later, in our homes. Eventually it “will have human and then superhuman dexterity,” he told shareholders in July. Optimus robots could automate almost all human labor—from hauling sheet metal to folding laundry—for as little as $20,000 each, Musk argues. Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, in January, he predicted they could be on sale to the public by the end of 2027. GETTY IMAGES

Westinghouse’s seven-foot-tall box on legs, Elektro, hit the New York World’s Fair in 1939, smoking a cigarette. WABOT-1, built by Waseda University in Japan in 1973, was the first full-scale, programmable humanoid robot. Honda’s ASIMO, unveiled in 2000, was probably the first such machine to prove at all competent—it could, at least to some degree, climb steps, recognize faces, and autonomously move through spaces. But the robot was discontinued in 2018, unable to advance far enough beyond what it could do in demonstrations to be useful.

All, at the time, were impressive—even jaw-dropping—feats of engineering. But none were ready to navigate the real world. Today’s robots, even with the transformative power of advanced AI, still face the same existential challenge. Musk is not alone in his evangelism. Marc Andreessen, cofounder and general partner of the Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, has said that robotics could become the “biggest industry in the history of the planet.” In January, Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, said that humanoid robots would match human-level ability this year. According to Morgan Stanley, the number of robots that “resemble and act like humans” is likely to reach nearly 1 billion by 2050, creating a market worth over $5 trillion.

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Elon Musk predicts that Tesla’s Optimus humanoid could be one the world’s best-selling products. For now, it’s most often seen handing out food and drinks at Tesla events.

SIPA VIA AP IMAGES