Anthropic study suggests blue-collar workers have decades before robots take their jobs

A staff member trains a humanoid robot at a training ground of National and Local Co-Built Humanoid Robotics Innovation Center on August 26, 2025 in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province of China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images) · VCG via Getty Images

After cost, the study found, the main barrier for robots is "capability, such as the dexterity needed to untangle wires. Human preferences and regulations further limit robot adoption for a significant share of tasks."

In an email note highlighting the paper, Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk wrote that "even under aggressive projections, widespread physical labor displacement will take decades." (Disclosure: Yahoo is a portfolio company of funds managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.) Anthropic notes:

Anthropic notes: "Calculated by comparing robot and labor costs. Labor costs are the fraction of time spent on exposed tasks multiplied by occupation total compensation. Given robot cost declines, the curve plots the share of all job tasks for which robots cost less than labor. Tasks are weighted by estimated time demands and occupation employment." (Source: 'What work can robots do?')

The findings run counter to a wave of optimism about humanoid robots. At CES in January 2026, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang predicted an imminent "ChatGPT moment" for robotics when detailing how the AI hardware giant is training robots. In May 2025, Morgan Stanley forecast a $5 trillion humanoid robot market by 2050. Robotics bulls argue that AI and mass-produced humanoids could push prices down much faster. In the fast scenario modeled in the Anthropic study, costs fall up to four times faster than the historical rate, and robots learn new tasks twice as quickly. Even in that scenario, robots won't become cheaper than people for half of today's physical work until 2050.

"Robots would need to sustain record rates of price declines and quality improvements over the coming decades to enable rapid physical automation," the paper states.

SUZHOU, CHINA - AUGUST 26: A staff member trains a humanoid robot at a training ground of National and Local Co-Built Humanoid Robotics Innovation Center on August 26, 2025 in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province of China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)