Elon Musk says robots could outnumber humans: How soon?

Reuters reported in August 2026 that humanoid robots remain too slow and error-prone for broad commercial deployment in many settings. Robots observed at one Chinese training facility could complete simple tasks at only around 20% of human speed or output.

Dexterity and AI remain major obstacles. Spirit AI co-founder Gao Yang told Reuters in September that the “brain is indeed the weakest link” in the current robotics stack. His company expects humanoid robots capable of following verbal instructions for many general-purpose tasks could emerge relatively soon, but useful household robots are expected to take longer because homes present far less predictable environments than factories. Speaking virtually at the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on September 1, 2026, the Tesla CEO described a future in which artificial intelligence and increasingly capable humanoid machines dramatically expand global production. “Ten years from now, I would say there are well over a billion humanoid robots,” Musk said during the event.

The Tesla Optimus humanoid robot (Tesla Bot) is displayed at the company's booth during the AWE 2026 technology expo, at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre© NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Tesla Optimus humanoid robot (Tesla Bot) is displayed at the company's booth during the AWE 2026 technology expo, at the Shanghai New International Expo Centre A humanoid robot with a friendly cartoon face is displayed at the Appliance and Electronics World Expo 2026 (AWE2026)© NurPhoto via Getty Images

A humanoid robot with a friendly cartoon face is displayed at the Appliance and Electronics World Expo 2026 (AWE2026)

Hyundai, meanwhile, plans to begin deploying humanoid robots at its Georgia manufacturing operation in 2028 before expanding their use across its manufacturing network.

These developments suggest that humanoid robotics is moving beyond futuristic demonstrations. The unresolved question is how quickly robots can become reliable, affordable and useful enough to justify deployment at massive scale.

What happens if robots become more productive than humans?