Goldman Sachs has quadrupled its forecast for the humanoid robot market size, with e-commerce warehouses and automotive production lines expected to be the earliest adopters.

Recently, Eric Sheridan, Managing Director and Internet and E-commerce Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs, released an 80-page research report on "Physical AI" to clients, comprehensively raising forecasts for the humanoid robot market and predicting that warehousing and logistics will be the first sector to experience significant growth.

Sheridan wrote in the report: "We are raising our forecasts for the humanoid robot market. The global market size is projected to reach approximately 890,000 units by 2030 and about 6.5 million units by 2035, corresponding to a market opportunity of roughly $138 billion." Additionally, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta visited Tesla's Fremont factory last week and reported to clients on the latest progress in converting the production lines for the discontinued Model S and Model X into Optimus humanoid robot production lines.

Corporate Survey: 40% of respondents expect 10% workflow automation within 3 to 5 years

Goldman Sachs also disclosed the initial results of its "Executive Perspectives" global survey, which focuses on themes related to robotics and physical AI.

The results show that approximately 40% of surveyed corporate executives expect that at least 10% of workflows will be automated through general-purpose robots within the next 3 to 5 years.

Risk Disclaimer

Use the share button in your browser to share the page with your friends This adjustment represents a significant increase compared to previous forecasts: the baseline projection for 2026 was raised from 51,000 units to 75,000 units, for 2030 from 256,000 units to 890,000 units, and for 2035 from 1.4 million units to 6.5 million units. Each humanoid robot entails semiconductor demand worth between $3,000 and over $6,000, covering high-performance computing modules, analog/mixed-signal chips, and edge storage.

Warehousing and Logistics: The Primary Arena for Initial Deployment

Sheridan explicitly pointed out that logistics and warehousing operations are the primary early adoption scenarios for general-purpose humanoid robots, with Amazon and Walmart leading this transformation.