Goldman Sachs has quadrupled its forecast for the humanoid robot market size, with e-commerce warehouses and automotive production lines expected to be the earliest adopters.
Recently, Eric Sheridan, Managing Director and Internet and E-commerce Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs, released an 80-page research report on "Physical AI" to clients, comprehensively raising forecasts for the humanoid robot market and predicting that ware...
Key takeaways
- The most recent reports show that humanoid robots are entering a rapid growth phase.
- In the first half of 2026 global shipments topped 22,000 units – a 300 % year‑on‑year rise – with Agibot leading the market at 9,700 units (43 % share), followed by Unitree (31 % share) and smaller players such as Galaxy Universal, UBTech and Leju.
- The surge is being highlighted by high‑profile events: the 2026 World Robot Conference in August attracted more than 3,000 products from 373 companies, and the 2nd World Humanoid Robot Games set new athletic records, including a 100‑metre sprint finished in 8.64 seconds, beating the previous robot record twice.
- At the same time, Goldman Sachs has dramatically upgraded its outlook, projecting 6.5 million humanoid units shipped by 2035 – a market worth about $138 billion – and identifying logistics, warehousing and the automotive sector as the first large‑scale adopters.
- Chinese automakers are pouring billions into robotics ventures, with firms such as XPeng raising over $900 million and several carmakers deploying Optimus‑type robots on production lines, while a California startup has begun renting humanoid robots for home cleaning, charging $30 per hour.
Recently, Eric Sheridan, Managing Director and Internet and E-commerce Equity Analyst at Goldman Sachs, released an 80-page research report on "Physical AI" to clients, comprehensively raising forecasts for the humanoid robot market and predicting that warehousing and logistics will be the first sector to experience significant growth.
Sheridan wrote in the report: "We are raising our forecasts for the humanoid robot market. The global market size is projected to reach approximately 890,000 units by 2030 and about 6.5 million units by 2035, corresponding to a market opportunity of roughly $138 billion." Additionally, JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta visited Tesla's Fremont factory last week and reported to clients on the latest progress in converting the production lines for the discontinued Model S and Model X into Optimus humanoid robot production lines.
Corporate Survey: 40% of respondents expect 10% workflow automation within 3 to 5 years
Goldman Sachs also disclosed the initial results of its "Executive Perspectives" global survey, which focuses on themes related to robotics and physical AI.
The results show that approximately 40% of surveyed corporate executives expect that at least 10% of workflows will be automated through general-purpose robots within the next 3 to 5 years.
Risk Disclaimer
Use the share button in your browser to share the page with your friends This adjustment represents a significant increase compared to previous forecasts: the baseline projection for 2026 was raised from 51,000 units to 75,000 units, for 2030 from 256,000 units to 890,000 units, and for 2035 from 1.4 million units to 6.5 million units. Each humanoid robot entails semiconductor demand worth between $3,000 and over $6,000, covering high-performance computing modules, analog/mixed-signal chips, and edge storage.
Warehousing and Logistics: The Primary Arena for Initial Deployment
Sheridan explicitly pointed out that logistics and warehousing operations are the primary early adoption scenarios for general-purpose humanoid robots, with Amazon and Walmart leading this transformation.
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