Goldman Sachs Just Supercharged Its Humanoid Robot ...

Goldman Just Rewrote The Robot Forecast

In its recently published 80-page Physical AI report, Goldman Sachs raised its 2035 forecast for humanoid robot shipments to approximately 6.5 million units, up from about 1.4 million previously. That is a nearly fivefold increase. The bank also raised its 2030 forecast from 256,000 to 890,000 units and its 2026 estimate from 51,000 to 75,000.

Goldman now estimates the 2035 humanoid market could be worth roughly $138 billion, compared with its previous $38 billion estimate. The revision reflects faster advances in AI, falling hardware costs, and growing investment in physical automation. Artificial intelligence is moving out of the data center and into the physical world. Autonomous vehicles, warehouse robots, and increasingly capable machines are giving AI a body, creating what Goldman Sachs calls "physical AI." The investment opportunity could be much larger than the market for humanoid robots themselves. Every machine needs processors, memory, sensors, motors, and software, creating a new demand stream for companies already supplying the AI economy.

Tesla Optimus humanoid robot

Tesla Optimus on X

Goldman Sachs is getting much more confident about that opportunity.

Goldman Just Rewrote The Robot Forecast Still, investors should not treat the forecast as a guarantee, even as Morgan Stanley has been more bullish, predicting 1 billion humanoid robots by 2050. RBC Capital Markets says it will become a $9 trillion market by then. But the numbers are large enough to matter. A $138 billion humanoid market and up to $39 billion of annual semiconductor content would create a new leg of AI infrastructure demand.

For now, the smarter play is to focus on the picks-and-shovels suppliers -- particularly leading semiconductor and automation companies -- rather than trying to predict which humanoid robot will win the popularity contest.

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