Humanoid Robot Shipments Forecast to Reach 26 Million Annually by 2040 - IoT Business News
By Marc Kavinsky, Lead Editor at IoT Business News. Berg Insight expects annual humanoid robot shipments to rise from 16,000 units in 2026 to 26 million by 2040, while cellular connections associated with humanoid robots could reach 50.6 million over the sa...
Key takeaways
- The most recent developments show that China is advancing both commercial and military applications of humanoid robots.
- On September 8 2026, XPeng announced that its IRON humanoid robot has walked autonomously off a newly commissioned, more than 80 percent automated production line, marking a shift from prototype demonstrations to scaled manufacturing and a plan to begin mass production by the end of 2026, with initial deployments in XPeng stores and campuses before broader commercial launch in 2027.
- A day earlier, Reuters reported that the People’s Liberation Army is urging researchers to accelerate the transfer of cutting‑edge humanoid technologies to military training grounds after the World Humanoid Robot Games, and disclosed a June 2026 PLA procurement of roughly $300,000 for a system to collect and label camera, radar and motion data to improve robot perception and terrain navigation.
- Counterpoint Research highlighted that 2026 is an inflection point for the sector, noting shipments of humanoid robots exceeding 50,000 units this year and a government‑backed initiative to cultivate over 10,000 units across more than 100 high‑value scenarios by year‑end.
- Long‑term market forecasts remain bullish, with Berg Insight projecting annual shipments to rise from 16,000 units in 2026 to 26 million by 2040, underscoring a rapid transition from experimental prototypes to large‑scale production and deployment.
By Marc Kavinsky, Lead Editor at IoT Business News.
Berg Insight expects annual humanoid robot shipments to rise from 16,000 units in 2026 to 26 million by 2040, while cellular connections associated with humanoid robots could reach 50.6 million over the same period.
Humanoid robots have spent years attracting attention through demonstrations and prototype programs, but their commercial significance will ultimately depend less on individual machines than on whether vendors can manufacture, deploy and manage them at scale. New forecasts from Berg Insight suggest that this transition is beginning, with production volumes expected to increase sharply over the next decade and beyond. The research firm forecasts annual humanoid robot shipments to grow from 16,000 units in 2026 to 26.0 million units worldwide by 2040, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 63.7 percent. It expects the corresponding market value to rise from US$890 million to US$554 billion.
From prototypes to production systems
More than 100 companies are now developing full-size humanoid robots, according to Berg Insight. Most remain at the research, prototype or pilot deployment stage, but a smaller group is beginning to scale production or prepare for larger commercial manufacturing. The forecast also implies an expanding role for connectivity providers and IoT platform vendors if humanoid deployments reach the volumes Berg Insight anticipates. Managing tens of millions of connected robots would create requirements around provisioning, diagnostics, remote software distribution and fleet visibility that closely resemble established IoT device-management challenges, although applied to substantially more complex endpoints.
The scale of Berg Insight’s forecast remains a long-term projection, but the more immediate signal is that humanoid robotics is beginning to move from experimental development toward an industry concerned with manufacturing, software ecosystems and connected fleet operations.
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