Nvidia and Musk's robotic big bets will test Anthropic's latest projections

A Morgan Stanley research report from 2025 forecasts that the market for humanoid robots could surpass $5 trillion by 2050. Adoption of humanoids, the report states, is likely to accelerate in the late 2030s with improved tech, a friendlier regulatory environment, and popular support.

Not so fast, the Anthropic report suggests. If the prices of robots declines following past trends, it will take 40 years for robots to replace just 10% of job tasks, according to the report. "Beyond price, factors including capabilities, preferences, and regulations pose further barriers to robot automation." A new study from the AI company Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) suggests blue-collar workers have decades before robots take their jobs. While that stretched time horizon is still unsettling, it offers some comfort for workers and the breathing room for collective action in the private sector and through public policy. The robot flood is coming, the study seems to say, but in more time than you think.

A Tesla Optimus humanoid robot is displayed at a Tesla store in Zurich, Switzerland, on September 10, 2026. (Photo by Joan Cros/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

A Tesla Optimus humanoid robot is displayed at a Tesla store in Zurich, Switzerland, on September 10, 2026. (Joan Cros/NurPhoto via Getty Images) · NurPhoto via Getty Images That analysis clashes with the more AI-bullish scenarios that foresee the rapid uptake of robots in households and factories, fueled by a rapidly diminishing cost to build them.

At CES in January 2026, for instance, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang predicted a coming "ChatGPT moment" for robotics in the form of agents, self-driving cars, and humanoid robots. And Tesla CEO Elon Musk is racing to establish a commercial beachhead for embodied AI with the company's Optimus robot. Musk has said Optimus will go on sale as early as next year, and envisions a future where every household has a robot.