China built robots that can do backflips – but can they ...
Wood Mackenzie expects the global humanoid robot fleet to grow more than 90% annually through 2035 to surpass 10 million units. Annual shipments are projected to top 4 million by then.
Key takeaways
- China remains the clear leader in the humanoid‑robot market, accounting for more than 97 % of global shipments in the first half of 2026, a share driven by a fully integrated supply chain, new tariff codes for intelligent biomimetic robots and even export‑insurance coverage for projects such as AGIBOT’s embodied‑robot exports.
- Unitree Robotics, the former global leader with 5,500 units shipped in 2025, launched an IPO on Shanghai’s STAR Market in August at 150.8 yuan per share, targeting a valuation of about 61 billion yuan and positioning itself as the first A‑share‑listed humanoid‑robot maker; analysts at Goldman Sachs now forecast worldwide shipments of 76 000 units in 2027 and 502 000 by 2032.
- The United States has moved in the opposite direction, with the FCC in July restricting the import and sale of new foreign‑made humanoid and quadruped robots on national‑security grounds, a measure that could limit Chinese manufacturers’ access to the U.S. market.
- Outside China, commercial pilots are emerging: Tau Robotics in San Francisco is offering a $30‑per‑hour home‑cleaning service using $50 000 humanoids, while analysts note the market could swell from its current $2‑3 billion valuation to $200 billion by 2035 if costs fall and public acceptance rises.
- Honda showcased its new “Avatar” humanoid at the Humanoids Summit 2026, presenting a tele‑operated robot with a dexterous multi‑fingered hand that revives the legacy of ASIMO for remote work in hazardous or inaccessible locations.
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Wood Mackenzie expects the global humanoid robot fleet to grow more than 90% annually through 2035 to surpass 10 million units. Annual shipments are projected to top 4 million by then. China is already the dominant player, accounting for more than 70% of global industrial robot installations and nearly 90% of all humanoids deployed last year, according to the research firm.
Average humanoid robot prices have plunged 93% between 2020 and 2025 to $58,000, according to Wood Mackenzie. The firm projects that Unitree's $16,000 flagship G1 model costs just $82 a year in electricity to run for eight hours a day, but says wider adoption could add pressure to electricity systems already stretched by AI data centers. While the humanoid robotics industry has a long way to go, the potential market opportunity has led to Tesla CEO Elon Musk doubling down on robotics, converting EV production lines at the company's Fremont factory to make Optimus humanoid robots. Production is expected to start later this year.
Some researchers argue Unitree isn't just a humanoid bet. Humanoids are Unitree's largest business, but quadruped robots still account for a sizable share. Purpose-built robots can be cheaper and more reliable in repetitive industrial settings, while humanoids are best-suited for unpredictable and less structured environments, they say.
Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news. Dominik Pross, equity analyst at VP Bank, says even advanced humanoid robots can typically handle only a small number of tasks – and for just a few hours before having to recharge their batteries. Most humanoid models run for up to four hours while sitting idle.
"Robots have to be specifically trained for each and every task entrusted to them, even the simplest," he said, adding that complex everyday activities are not yet within reach.
More robotics listings are set to follow. Unitree rival AgiBot and Leju Robotics are seeking to go public in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, respectively. LimX Dynamics founder Will Zhang told CNBC last month that "listing is a must."
Humanoid economics
Lower-cost manufacturing has helped China pull ahead of global rivals in robotics.
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