Op-ed: What $5 billion humanoid robots taught me about risk, jobs and the future of the economy

An Apollo humanoid robot prototype, made by Apptronik Inc., demonstrates its dexterity during a media day at the Mercedes-Benz Digital Factory Campus in Berlin, Germany on Tuesday, March 18, 2025.

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Recently, Apptronik announced a $520 million funding round at a valuation north of $5 billion, with Alphabet's Google DeepMind as a partner. Today, their market position within the humanoid robot category sounds inevitable.

In 2019, it didn't.

I was on a YPO forum trip to Austin and had arranged for our group to visit Capital Factory to hear startup pitches. As usual, most were forgettable. Interesting ideas, thin moats. No technical talent.

Then Jeff Cardenas walked in, holding an interesting looking robotic arm. CNBC Disruptor 50

Op-ed: What $5 billion humanoid robots taught me about risk, jobs and the future of the economy

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Key Points

Labor is one of the largest input costs in the global economy, so if you can build a humanoid that performs repetitive, dangerous, or ergonomically brutal tasks, you're altering a cost structure that sits at the core of global GDP. That's the type of risk profile that can make an early-stage investment go to zero quick or grow non-linearly, writes CEO and investor Ravin Gandhi. For UT Austin-founded robotics startup Apptronik, which he invested in back in 2019 at a valuation of $15 million, it's been the latter after a recent deal valuing the company at $5 billion. The U.S. has the ingredients: world-class universities, deep capital markets, and founders willing to take uncomfortable risks. We should use them, and give them every support.

Elon Musk says that there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans. And these robots might be the key to interplanetary travel and many other almost unimaginable advances.

But just a few years ago, Apptronik was just a founder with conviction, a real technical bench, and a problem large enough to matter. That's usually how the best bets begin.

Humanoid robotics may take longer than optimists expect. It will almost certainly cost more than projected. Manufacturing scale will separate winners from dreamers.

But if it works, it won't just create a large company. It will change how work gets done.